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Occam and his razor. Bad

I'm not talking about cowboys and Indians, or John Wayne or anything. What we bring to you today has to do with why the end the answer is, not where we least expect it before our eyes, just waiting for us to condescend to give due prominence.

How often do we complicate thinking about thousands of possible causes, reasons, quasi unbelievable possibilities to explain an observation? For one example: those who believe in paranormal events, the homeopathy, freaks of conspiracy theories, everything is valid and always responds to a complex development causes and reasons that many times (in all previous course) has little to do with reality.

But what happens when we apply this model of thinking, so human on the other hand, science or medicine? usually involves a minimum investment of time and significant resources to verify or refute hypotheses or theories complex, in many cases could have been resolved by following the principle of parsimony or simplicity (Occam's razor ) which assumes that to accept a complex hypotheses must predict it data / observation much better than simple hypotheses.

In medicine for example it often happens that "trees can not see the forest" and to give to the cause of any symptoms they go to more complex reasoning to validate and provide treatment to patients subjected to all the evidence necessary to Thus, in many cases painful, invasive and unnecessary. The principle of simplicity applied to medicine suggests that the diagnosis should find the smallest or the most obvious of reasons to explain all the symptoms. And here is the crux of the matter because if you stay with the most obvious expliación but this only explains part of the symptomatology the diagnosis is wrong.

Let's take a year of "diagnosis": a patient over 50 years comes into your query, and the first thing you observe is that obese, the second to read your file having type 2 diabetes and a family history of heart problems and circulation. After a couple of heart function tests, the result is that something is wrong, but the analytic rule cholesterol problems, the doctor says nothing about overweight and yet recommended an invasive test to rule out arterial problems. Guess the result right? with only one eye and ignoring the principle above that the problem almost obvious, but it is necessary that this test is negative and an expert meeting to conclude the obvious: being overweight is that cardiac function is limited.

Eye ! I'm not saying rule out another type of damage is not necessary especially when there is danger of death, never refuse a colonoscopy when there is a risk of colon cancer but before I go to such extremes that it makes sense to evaluate simpler hypotheses and once discarded they proceed to the next step and not start the cart before the horse.

I also think that perhaps it is a basic problem of how health, expect quick answers, there is overcrowding in the medical system and have virtually no time even to think about what is best in each case or are blinded by their specialization or in the case of American medicine, medicine is a "defensive" which are responsible for all kinds of tests needed or not because the risk of being sued for malpractice is so high that no one wants to risk it, and therefore cover the back sending a "complete."

not, what do you think? Is my reasoning appropriate and simple enough, or I move away from the complicated and I intend to defend? In the end, we are all human.

What Does Ready Break Have In It?

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" What not kill me makes me stronger "

" Beni Beni öldürmeyen

Cornucopia Were To Find In Runescape

smoke.

Again I will talk about services, one in particular and of two phenomena associated with it. Today we talk about one of the few legal drugs in the world of snuff. The first phenomenon I find interesting note is the false belief that varieties "light" are healthier. And how the tobacco industry takes advantage of unconscious mental associations such as the whiteness is a symbol of health to enhance this effect. And the second is why when people decide to leave the snuff is placed in a bad mood, bad mood, or at least a possible explanation.

First things first, Ben Goldacre explains in his blog that in the UK are trying to completely eliminate brands of cigarette packets to avoid identification as we mentioned at the beginning: package markings or white with light colors = less bad. The industry has been selling the idea that snuff "light" is healthier from decades ago and quite successful at least as is evident from surveys and population studies show that among smokers is almost a fact facto "light" lead less risk of cancer and less addictive (though curiously, by virtue of being healthy, light smokers are much less willing to let , but smoke more cigarettes on average than those who smoke "normal"). So even though in some countries has been prohibited from using terms like "light" or "members mild" is still using the same type of claim in the colors and layout of the packets because the industry employs millions in marketing and know by heart the psychological effects of colors and images and feelings they evoke, in fact how the tobacco company Phillip Morris supports a document on how to advertise new products in a medium limited to: ".... much more "light" product presentation moves more toward the blue range to the target, because this is a color that clearly identifies with the cleanliness and health .. .

Presentation snuff brand "light." All white and blue.

And despite being so clear and open the way these companies manipulate people's beliefs, emphasizing the creation and maintenance of a long-term addiction is life down the authorities head and shut up because tobacco companies are very powerful (look news on Morris lobby in Spain) plus taxes on snuff are important to fill the coffers. Yuck!

Grrrrr!

And now slight change of pace, what happens when you finally decide to quit? as for what I have seen in some (many) of my friends @ s is that in some cases what happens is that the service simply changes its name now would be addiction anise candy, chocolate ... others, those who dare to face the bull bare-chested (but that is me being torero this paragraph and olé!) face, they and those who suffer from a bad mood is quite characteristic. But why this bad blood? The answer, as so often is in the brain (and it is clear to the experts that I mean the brain completito with his cerebellum and other brain writing but is more comfortable and sounds better). The brain is an organ with limited and when they are exercising a higher cognitive control in an area (in this case to avoid the temptation to smoke, others will eat the last slice of pizza or buy that pair of shoes that are out of budget) capacity is low available to put a lid on bad fumes. In this line there are a couple of studies, one 2007 in which scientists asked a group of people who avoid eating a chocolate donut for a few minutes, then turned to the damn insulting to the poor and obviously subject had not even had the donut to sweeten the palate endured less and responded more aggressively than those who ate the donut. On the other hand, is poorly documented and humor of the diet is more a study recently appeared shows that not only are more susceptible to bad mood but we are much more "in" anything that involves bad mood, which means that everything that we will attract more negative: they are films, thoughts and bad sides. Curious right? (I read The Frontal Cortex )

So as I see it, if you have thought about quitting or put you on a diet (although they I explained is not very likely to work) as best you can do to stop the bad mood is to spoil the tonsils and give a small prize from time to time, something like ... "Chocolate ice cream in the sunshine of spring?